- Probability
- Edge
- Parlays
- Moneyline
- Spread
- O/U
- Flat
- Kelly
Performance Tracking
Track probability-based (flat betting) betting performance by week with ROI and win rate statistics
Weekly Small Favorite Parlays (2-5 Leg Combinations)
Small Favorites Parlay Performance
Flat BettingMixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 19
4 parlays • 1W-3L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
25.0%
Avg Multiplier
3.13x
WAGER ROI
-75.0%
Profit
-7.5%
Win Rate
25.0%
Avg Multiplier
3.13x
WAGER ROI
-75.0%
Profit
-7.5%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 18
26 parlays • 4W-22L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
15.4%
Avg Multiplier
4.17x
WAGER ROI
-41.5%
Profit
-8.3%
Win Rate
15.4%
Avg Multiplier
4.17x
WAGER ROI
-41.5%
Profit
-8.3%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 17
26 parlays • 1W-25L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
3.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.20x
WAGER ROI
-85.4%
Profit
-17.1%
Win Rate
3.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.20x
WAGER ROI
-85.4%
Profit
-17.1%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 16
112 parlays • 11W-101L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
9.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.91x
WAGER ROI
+109.8%
Profit
+22.0%
Win Rate
9.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.91x
WAGER ROI
+109.8%
Profit
+22.0%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 15
26 parlays • 1W-25L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
3.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.16x
WAGER ROI
-86.2%
Profit
-17.2%
Win Rate
3.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.16x
WAGER ROI
-86.2%
Profit
-17.2%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 14
56 parlays • 1W-55L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
1.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.96x
WAGER ROI
-87.1%
Profit
-17.4%
Win Rate
1.8%
Avg Multiplier
5.96x
WAGER ROI
-87.1%
Profit
-17.4%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 13
26 parlays • 0W-26L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
0.0%
Avg Multiplier
4.16x
WAGER ROI
-100.0%
Profit
-20.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
Avg Multiplier
4.16x
WAGER ROI
-100.0%
Profit
-20.0%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 12
4 parlays • 1W-3L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
25.0%
Avg Multiplier
3.22x
WAGER ROI
-71.7%
Profit
-7.2%
Win Rate
25.0%
Avg Multiplier
3.22x
WAGER ROI
-71.7%
Profit
-7.2%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 11
56 parlays • 11W-45L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
19.6%
Avg Multiplier
5.30x
WAGER ROI
+93.8%
Profit
+18.8%
Win Rate
19.6%
Avg Multiplier
5.30x
WAGER ROI
+93.8%
Profit
+18.8%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 10
11 parlays • 4W-7L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
36.4%
Avg Multiplier
4.63x
WAGER ROI
+3.5%
Profit
+0.5%
Win Rate
36.4%
Avg Multiplier
4.63x
WAGER ROI
+3.5%
Profit
+0.5%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 9
112 parlays • 11W-101L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
9.8%
Avg Multiplier
6.56x
WAGER ROI
+116.7%
Profit
+23.3%
Win Rate
9.8%
Avg Multiplier
6.56x
WAGER ROI
+116.7%
Profit
+23.3%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 8
26 parlays • 26W-0L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
100.0%
Avg Multiplier
4.33x
WAGER ROI
+463.2%
Profit
+92.6%
Win Rate
100.0%
Avg Multiplier
4.33x
WAGER ROI
+463.2%
Profit
+92.6%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 7
56 parlays • 26W-30L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
46.4%
Avg Multiplier
6.58x
WAGER ROI
+559.8%
Profit
+112.0%
Win Rate
46.4%
Avg Multiplier
6.58x
WAGER ROI
+559.8%
Profit
+112.0%
Mixed (2-5 Leg) Parlays - Week 6
11 parlays • 11W-0L • Small Favorites (-101 to -200) • 20% Weekly Allocation
Win Rate
100.0%
Avg Multiplier
3.25x
WAGER ROI
+138.5%
Profit
+20.8%
Win Rate
100.0%
Avg Multiplier
3.25x
WAGER ROI
+138.5%
Profit
+20.8%
Clutch
+0.5% vs BestROI
-3.8%
Win Rate
66.0%
132-68-0
Profit
-3.8%
Total Bets
200
FAV: 68% | DOG: 47%
Over/Under Performance by Total Lines
0 total bets • 0W-0L
Total O/U Bets
0
Overall Win Rate
0.0%
Overall ROI
0.0%
Avg Edge
0.0%
Total O/U Bets
0
Overall Win Rate
0.0%
Overall ROI
0.0%
Avg Edge
0.0%
Over/Under Performance Matrix
Performance breakdown by total lines and spread contexts for over_under bets
Total Bets
0
Best Context
None
Active Contexts
0/9
Overall ROI
0.0%
Favorite/Underdog & Home/Away Analysis
Performance breakdown by team type and venue for moneyline bets using flat betting strategy
Home Favs
100 betsHome Dogs
4 betsAway Favs
81 betsAway Dogs
15 betsTotal Bets
200
Best Quadrant
Home Dogs
Home vs Away
52% Home
Fav vs Dog
91% Fav
Favorite/Underdog Magnitude Analysis
Performance breakdown by betting line magnitude for moneyline bets using flat betting strategy
Small Favs (-200 to -101) • Medium Favs (-300 to -201) • Large Favs (-999 to -301) • Small Dogs (+100 to +199) • Medium Dogs (+200 to +299) • Large Dogs (+300+)
Small Favorites
-200 to -101Medium Favorites
-300 to -201Large Favorites
-999 to -301Small Underdogs
+100 to +199Medium Underdogs
+200 to +299Large Underdogs
+300+Total Bets
200
Best Category
Small Dogs
Fav vs Dog
91% Favs
Avg ROI
-3.8%
Individual Bet Performance
Week 22 - 2025
1 bets • 1W-0L
Wager ROI
+42.6%
Bankroll ROI
+1.28%
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit
+1.28%
Wager ROI
+42.6%
Bankroll ROI
+1.28%
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit
+1.28%
Week 21 - 2025
2 bets • 1W-1L
Wager ROI
-26.2%
Bankroll ROI
-1.57%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-1.57%
Wager ROI
-26.2%
Bankroll ROI
-1.57%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-1.57%
Week 20 - 2025
4 bets • 3W-1L
Wager ROI
+9.0%
Bankroll ROI
+1.08%
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit
+1.08%
Wager ROI
+9.0%
Bankroll ROI
+1.08%
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit
+1.08%
Week 19 - 2025
6 bets • 4W-2L
Wager ROI
+6.4%
Bankroll ROI
+1.15%
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit
+1.15%
Wager ROI
+6.4%
Bankroll ROI
+1.15%
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit
+1.15%
Week 18 - 2025
16 bets • 10W-6L
Wager ROI
-20.8%
Bankroll ROI
-9.97%
Win Rate
62.5%
Profit
-9.97%
Wager ROI
-20.8%
Bankroll ROI
-9.97%
Win Rate
62.5%
Profit
-9.97%
Week 17 - 2025
16 bets • 9W-7L
Wager ROI
-22.7%
Bankroll ROI
-10.89%
Win Rate
56.3%
Profit
-10.89%
Wager ROI
-22.7%
Bankroll ROI
-10.89%
Win Rate
56.3%
Profit
-10.89%
Week 16 - 2025
16 bets • 11W-5L
Wager ROI
+7.8%
Bankroll ROI
+3.74%
Win Rate
68.8%
Profit
+3.74%
Wager ROI
+7.8%
Bankroll ROI
+3.74%
Win Rate
68.8%
Profit
+3.74%
Week 15 - 2025
16 bets • 8W-8L
Wager ROI
-34.7%
Bankroll ROI
-16.64%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-16.64%
Wager ROI
-34.7%
Bankroll ROI
-16.64%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-16.64%
Week 14 - 2025
14 bets • 7W-7L
Wager ROI
-31.5%
Bankroll ROI
-13.21%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-13.21%
Wager ROI
-31.5%
Bankroll ROI
-13.21%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-13.21%
Week 13 - 2025
16 bets • 8W-8L
Wager ROI
-32.8%
Bankroll ROI
-15.72%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-15.72%
Wager ROI
-32.8%
Bankroll ROI
-15.72%
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit
-15.72%
Week 12 - 2025
14 bets • 13W-1L
Wager ROI
+48.9%
Bankroll ROI
+20.54%
Win Rate
92.9%
Profit
+20.54%
Wager ROI
+48.9%
Bankroll ROI
+20.54%
Win Rate
92.9%
Profit
+20.54%
Week 11 - 2025
15 bets • 10W-5L
Wager ROI
-5.4%
Bankroll ROI
-2.42%
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit
-2.42%
Wager ROI
-5.4%
Bankroll ROI
-2.42%
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit
-2.42%
Week 10 - 2025
14 bets • 10W-4L
Wager ROI
+11.5%
Bankroll ROI
+4.81%
Win Rate
71.4%
Profit
+4.81%
Wager ROI
+11.5%
Bankroll ROI
+4.81%
Win Rate
71.4%
Profit
+4.81%
Week 9 - 2025
14 bets • 9W-5L
Wager ROI
-2.0%
Bankroll ROI
-0.86%
Win Rate
64.3%
Profit
-0.86%
Wager ROI
-2.0%
Bankroll ROI
-0.86%
Win Rate
64.3%
Profit
-0.86%
Week 8 - 2025
13 bets • 10W-3L
Wager ROI
+9.7%
Bankroll ROI
+3.78%
Win Rate
76.9%
Profit
+3.78%
Wager ROI
+9.7%
Bankroll ROI
+3.78%
Win Rate
76.9%
Profit
+3.78%
Week 7 - 2025
15 bets • 12W-3L
Wager ROI
+21.8%
Bankroll ROI
+9.83%
Win Rate
80.0%
Profit
+9.83%
Wager ROI
+21.8%
Bankroll ROI
+9.83%
Win Rate
80.0%
Profit
+9.83%
Week 6 - 2025
8 bets • 6W-2L
Wager ROI
+8.4%
Bankroll ROI
+2.01%
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit
+2.01%
Wager ROI
+8.4%
Bankroll ROI
+2.01%
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit
+2.01%
Team Performance Breakdown
2025 Season Stats by Team
| Team | Win Rate | ROI | Profit | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
HOU | 100.0% | +63.4% | +63.4% | 8 |
NE | 100.0% | +32.7% | +32.7% | 11 |
SEA | 100.0% | +35.8% | +35.8% | 10 |
JAX | 100.0% | +41.4% | +41.4% | 6 |
SF | 100.0% | +48.2% | +48.2% | 5 |
Teams That Proved Us Wrong
Teams that beat our picks most often
| Team | Proved Wrong % | Times Wrong | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
PIT | 42.9% | 6 | 14 |
MIN | 33.3% | 4 | 12 |
SF | 28.6% | 4 | 14 |
MIA | 27.3% | 3 | 11 |
DAL | 27.3% | 3 | 11 |
Model Agreement Performance
Team bet performance when spread and moneyline models agree or disagree
Spread & Moneyline Agree
-1.7%Win Rate
53.3%
Record
56-49
Bets
105
Spread & Moneyline Disagree
+10.2%Win Rate
53.7%
Record
51-44
Bets
95
Team Bet Performance by O/U Prediction Context
| Spread/ML Agreement | O/U Prediction | ROI | Win Rate | Record | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree | Over | -11.0% | 47.5% | 38-42 | 80 |
| Agree | Under | +27.9% | 72.0% | 18-7 | 25 |
| Disagree | Over | -0.9% | 50.8% | 30-29 | 59 |
| Disagree | Under | +28.4% | 58.3% | 21-15 | 36 |