Performance Snapshot
Every pick we've published, scored against the actual result. No cherry-picking, no recency bias — 696,574 graded predictions at 55.1% accuracy. And +7.7% sharper than the closing line on average.
Moneyline
53.8%
7,627–6,558 · 14,304 graded
Picking the outright winner.
Spread
47.8%
34,862–38,030 · 74,416 graded
Beating the point spread.
Over / Under
59.0%
58,471–40,714 · 101,498 graded
Total points over or under.
Player Props
55.4%
280,358–225,792 · 506,356 graded
Yes/no on a player stat.
Moneyline
54.8%
2,032–1,678 · 3,710 graded
Spread
42.8%
13,140–17,567 · 30,960 graded
Over / Under
64.6%
23,505–12,891 · 36,628 graded
Player Props
52.4%
How well predicted probabilities match actual outcomes
Predictions per bin
When the model says 70%, it hits ~70%. That's what “calibrated” means — and why our edge isn't an accident.
The numbers above are the headline. Inside, you get the picks themselves — plus the breakdowns that show where to deploy them.
124,313–112,856 · 237,277 graded
Moneyline
53.4%
5,595–4,880 · 10,594 graded
Spread
51.5%
21,722–20,463 · 43,456 graded
Over / Under
55.7%
34,966–27,823 · 64,870 graded
Player Props
58.0%
156,045–112,936 · 269,079 graded