Overview

Weekly Stats

Team Performance

Proved Wrong

Fav/Dog Analysis

Magnitude Analysis

Situational Metrics

Probability
Edge

Moneyline
Spread
O/U

BetMGM
Caesars
DraftKings
ESPN Bet
FanDuel

Bankroll:% Percent

Performance Tracking

Track traditional betting performance by week with ROI and win rate statistics

Favorite

Always Bet Favorite

ROI

+0.6%

Win Rate

58.3%

67-48-0

Profit

+0.6%

Total Bets

115

All games

Clutch

-2.9% vs Best

ROI

-2.2%

Win Rate

67.0%

77-38-0

Profit

-2.2%

Total Bets

115

FAV: 73% | DOG: 31%

Underdog

Always Bet Underdog

ROI

-13.6%

Win Rate

41.7%

48-67-0

Profit

-13.6%

Total Bets

115

All games

Week 8 - 2025

8 bets • 5W-3L

Wager ROI

-38.5%

Bankroll ROI

-9.29%

Win Rate

62.5%

Profit

-9.29%

Wager ROI

-38.5%

Bankroll ROI

-9.29%

Win Rate

62.5%

Profit

-9.29%

Week 7 - 2025

15 bets • 12W-3L

Wager ROI

+20.1%

Bankroll ROI

+7.34%

Win Rate

80.0%

Profit

+7.34%

Wager ROI

+20.1%

Bankroll ROI

+7.34%

Win Rate

80.0%

Profit

+7.34%

Week 6 - 2025

15 bets • 11W-4L

Wager ROI

+9.7%

Bankroll ROI

+3.13%

Win Rate

73.3%

Profit

+3.13%

Wager ROI

+9.7%

Bankroll ROI

+3.13%

Win Rate

73.3%

Profit

+3.13%

Week 5 - 2025

14 bets • 5W-9L

Wager ROI

-18.1%

Bankroll ROI

-10.55%

Win Rate

35.7%

Profit

-10.55%

Wager ROI

-18.1%

Bankroll ROI

-10.55%

Win Rate

35.7%

Profit

-10.55%

Week 4 - 2025

15 bets • 11W-4L

Wager ROI

+21.3%

Bankroll ROI

+8.52%

Win Rate

73.3%

Profit

+8.52%

Wager ROI

+21.3%

Bankroll ROI

+8.52%

Win Rate

73.3%

Profit

+8.52%

Week 3 - 2025

16 bets • 11W-5L

Wager ROI

-1.5%

Bankroll ROI

-0.59%

Win Rate

68.8%

Profit

-0.59%

Wager ROI

-1.5%

Bankroll ROI

-0.59%

Win Rate

68.8%

Profit

-0.59%

Week 2 - 2025

16 bets • 11W-5L

Wager ROI

+12.9%

Bankroll ROI

+5.05%

Win Rate

68.8%

Profit

+5.05%

Wager ROI

+12.9%

Bankroll ROI

+5.05%

Win Rate

68.8%

Profit

+5.05%

Week 1 - 2025

16 bets • 11W-5L

Wager ROI

-20.3%

Bankroll ROI

-10.76%

Win Rate

68.8%

Profit

-10.76%

Wager ROI

-20.3%

Bankroll ROI

-10.76%

Win Rate

68.8%

Profit

-10.76%

Team Performance Breakdown

2025 Season Stats by Team

Team	Win Rate	ROI	Profit	Bets
JAX	100.0%	+135.1%	+135.1%	3
IND	100.0%	+80.7%	+80.7%	6
CAR	100.0%	+92.1%	+92.1%	2
PIT	60.0%	+41.4%	+41.4%	5
SEA	80.0%	+43.0%	+43.0%	5

Teams That Proved Us Wrong

Teams that beat our picks most often

Team	Proved Wrong %	Times Wrong	Total Games
ATL	42.9%	3	7
NE	37.5%	3	8
DAL	33.3%	2	6
CHI	28.6%	2	7
TB	28.6%	2	7

Favorite/Underdog & Home/Away Analysis

Performance breakdown by team type and venue for moneyline bets

Home Favs

63 bets

Win Rate74.6%

ROI+10.5%

Record47-16

Home Dogs

9 bets

Win Rate33.3%

ROI-20.0%

Record3-6

Away Favs

36 bets

Win Rate69.4%

ROI+12.1%

Record25-11

Away Dogs

7 bets

Win Rate28.6%

ROI-49.0%

Record2-5

Total Bets

115

Best Quadrant

Away Favs

Home vs Away

63% Home

Fav vs Dog

86% Fav

Favorite/Underdog Magnitude Analysis

Performance breakdown by betting line magnitude for moneyline bets

Small Favs (-200 to -101) • Medium Favs (-300 to -201) • Large Favs (-999 to -301) • Small Dogs (+100 to +199) • Medium Dogs (+200 to +299) • Large Dogs (+300+)

Small Favorites

-200 to -101

48 bets

Win Rate72.9%

ROI+27.6%

Record35-13

Medium Favorites

-300 to -201

22 bets

Win Rate63.6%

ROI-12.1%

Record14-8

Large Favorites

-999 to -301

29 bets

Win Rate79.3%

ROI-3.9%

Record23-6

Small Underdogs

+100 to +199

14 bets

Win Rate35.7%

ROI-10.6%

Record5-9

Medium Underdogs

+200 to +299

2 bets

Win Rate0.0%

ROI-100.0%

Record0-2

Large Underdogs

+300+

0 bets

Win Rate0.0%

ROI0.0%

Record0-0

Total Bets

115

Best Category

Small Favs

Fav vs Dog

86% Favs

Avg ROI

-2.2%

Model Agreement Performance

Team bet performance when spread and moneyline models agree or disagree

Spread & Moneyline Agree

+24.0%

Win Rate

64.7%

Record

33-18

Bets

Spread & Moneyline Disagree

-31.7%

Win Rate

52.6%

Record

10-9

Bets

Team Bet Performance by O/U Prediction Context

Spread/ML Agreement	O/U Prediction	ROI	Win Rate	Record	Bets
Agree	Over	+9.0%	62.5%	20-12	32
Agree	Under	+51.9%	68.4%	13-6	19
Disagree	Over	-34.7%	53.8%	7-6	13
Disagree	Under	-24.7%	50.0%	3-3	6